New York Jets 2010 Season Preview
Football Betting Lines
08/22/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - To be a fan of the New York Jets is to be encoded with the skepticism chip.
When you've hitched your wagon to an organization that has, for more than four decades, taken two colossal steps back for every stride forward, developed disappointment and heartbreak into a cottage industry, handed the keys to the organization to Rich Kotite and drafted Browning Nagle No. 34 overall, you have more than a few reasons to be jaded.
So, all the good feelings currently surrounding this team feel about as natural to the team's long-suffering fans as a plate of enchiladas at the Thanksgiving dinner table.
Many have resisted their inhibitions and jumped aboard Rex Ryan's bandwagon of positivity, but some just can't bring themselves to believe that this is indeed the year.
Here's how the push and pull goes between the naysayers and yeasayers:
Optimists: The Jets finished with a flourish last year, going 7-2 over the final nine games and getting all the way to the AFC Championship. After beating the Bengals and Chargers on the road come playoff time, this team has the confidence and talent to build on that success.
Pessimists: The Jets were a 9-7 team that wouldn't have even reached the playoffs had the AFC been stronger last year. They got gifts from the Colts and Bengals, who didn't play to win over the final two weeks of the regular season, then got lucky in the playoffs when Shayne Graham and Nate Kaeding forgot how to kick a football. This team hasn't even won the AFC East since 2002, and we're talking Super Bowl?
Optimists: Quarterback Mark Sanchez played well as a rookie in the playoffs last season, and will take a major leap forward in year two.
Pessimists: Quarterback Mark Sanchez has a long way to go before he becomes a consistent NFL quarterback. He completed just 53.8 percent of his passes a year ago, threw 20 interceptions against just 12 touchdowns, and did his best work when he was managing games and letting the running backs and defense do the heavy lifting. He's not a Super Bowl quarterback yet.
Optimists: LaDainian Tomlinson and Santonio Holmes will help this offense be more dynamic and consistent.
Pessimists: LaDainian Tomlinson is past his prime and will be the No. 2 back behind the unproven (at least over a whole season) Shonn Greene. Santonio Holmes is suspended for the first four games, and even if he can keep his nose clean when he comes back, he's never had to be the No. 1 receiver.
Optimists: The best defense in the league will rule the day when all else fails.
Pessimists: The best defense in the league might not even have its top player, disgruntled cornerback Darrelle Revis, and his absence would severely threaten the Jets' status as the NFL's top defensive unit.
Optimists: Rex Ryan is a great coach who has this team believing
Pessimists: Rex Ryan did not look like such a great coach during that 1-6 stretch of football last year, and his emotional approach might not stand up to what amounts to a 22-week grind. He's entertaining, but he has a long way to go to prove that he can lead a team to the Super Bowl promised land.
So, Jets fans, which camp do you fall in?
Below we take a capsule look at the 2010 edition of the New York Jets, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:
2009 RECORD: 9-7 (2nd, AFC East)
LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2009, lost to Indianapolis, 30-17, in AFC Championship
COACH (RECORD): Rex Ryan (9-7 in one season with Jets, 9-7 overall)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Brian Schottenheimer
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Mike Pettine
OFFENSIVE STAR: Mark Sanchez, QB (2444 passing yards, 12 TD, 20 INT)
DEFENSIVE STAR: Darrelle Revis, CB (54 tackles, 6 INT)
OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 1st rushing, 31st passing, 17th scoring
DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 8th rushing, 1st passing, 1st scoring
KEY ADDITIONS: QB Mark Brunell (from Saints), RB LaDainian Tomlinson (from Chargers), RB Joe McKnight (4th Round, USC), WR Santonio Holmes (from Steelers), OL Vladimir Ducasse (2nd Round, Massachusetts), OLB Jason Taylor (from Dolphins), CB Kyle Wilson (1st Round, Boise State), CB Antonio Cromartie (from Chargers), S Brodney Pool (from Browns), K Nick Folk (from Cowboys)
KEY DEPARTURES: RB Thomas Jones (to Chiefs), RB Leon Washington (to Seahawks), G Alan Faneca (to Cardinals), DE Marques Douglas (to Dolphins), LB Ryan Fowler (not tendered), LB Larry Izzo (not tendered), CB Donald Strickland (to Chargers), CB Lito Sheppard (to Vikings), S Kerry Rhodes (to Cardinals), K Jay Feely (to Cardinals), LS James Dearth (to Redskins)
QB: Much of the Jets' offensive development in 2010 will hinge on the development of Sanchez, who played just like you would have expected a rookie to play before guys like Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan raised the bar a year before his arrival. To his credit, Sanchez did make some big throws in the postseason, and the team is hopeful that he can carry that confidence over this year. The team signed 39-year-old Mark Brunell (102 passing yards, 1 INT with New Orleans), who backed up Drew Brees with the Super Bowl Champion Saints last season, to be the No. 2 and help mentor Sanchez. That could spell curtains for former second-round pick Kellen Clemens (125 passing yards), who could be served up as trade bait.
RB: The running back torch was passed during the Jets' 2009 playoff run, when Greene carried the load and posted 100-yard games in wins at the Bengals and Chargers. Those performances made Thomas Jones surplus to needs, despite the fact that Jones was fresh off a fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season and had scored 29 touchdowns in the previous two tears. The Jets gambled that future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson (730 rushing yards, 12 TD with the Chargers) would embrace the short-yardage and third-down role more than Jones would have, and signed Tomlinson to a two-year, $5.2 million deal. The club also drafted USC's Joe McKnight in the fourth round, though reviews of McKnight were not positive early in camp or the preseason, and the team could be forced to pursue other options. Nearly as interesting is the fullback battle taking place between quality veteran Tony Richardson (48 rushing yards), and sixth- round fullback John Conner (Kentucky). Don't be surprised to see the Jets find a way to keep both, though if their hand is forced, bet on Conner making the team.
WR/TE: If Sanchez has to make excuses at some point for a poor 2010, the presence of a weak receiving corps can't be among them. After adding Holmes (79 receptions, 5 TD with the Steelers) and Braylon Edwards (35 receptions, 4 TD) to the mix since last October, the Jets group of outside targets can now be called top-tier. Edwards had some trouble with drops and invisibility after being acquired from the Browns last year, but the hope is that he'll be better after a full offseason working with Sanchez and learning Brian Schottenheimer's offense. When all else fails, Jerricho Cotchery (57 receptions, 3 TD) is still around to make critical catches as well. The bottom of the depth chart is interesting, as Brad Smith (7 receptions, 207 rushing yards, 1 TD), David Clowney (14 receptions, 1 TD) and prodigal son Laveranues Coles (43 receptions, 5 TD with Cincinnati) would all seem to have some value, but at least one is going to be gone once Holmes returns from his four-game suspension. At tight end, Dustin Keller (45 receptions, 2 TD) and Ben Hartsock (1 TD) both return after appearing in every game last year. Another holdover, Matthew Mulligan (1 reception), could stick if the team keeps three at the position.
OL: Though it's not a move that gets discussed in the midst of all the Jets' other drama, the decision to release guard Alan Faneca and replace him with second-round rookie Vladimir Ducasse could loom large. Faneca was in decline, and Ducasse is a very promising talent, but there's no way the raw youngster will be the veteran's equal at this stage of his career. The rest of the crew up front will remain the same. The Jets gave left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson a contract extension, and Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold will likely get one as well. The right-side duo of Brandon Moore (guard) and Damien Woody (tackle) should give Ryan and Schottenheimer few sleepless nights. Within the backup forces, swing tackle Wayne Hunter, second-year guard Matt Slauson (a fail-safe in case Ducasse falters) and utility man Robert Turner all have experience.
DL: One of the most amazing parts about the Jets' rise to the top of the NFL defensive charts a year ago is that they did it with space-eating nose tackle Kris Jenkins (13 tackles) missing the majority of the season with a torn ACL. Jenkins is back, which should allow Sione Pouha (45 tackles) to shift back to end after doing yeoman's work in the middle. Shaun Ellis (53 tackles, 6.5 sacks) should again take his place at left end after making the Pro Bowl a season ago. Also expected to garner some time along the three-man front is former first-round pick Vernon Gholston (17 tackles), who has been a zero at outside linebacker but the team seems determined to find a spot for. Gholston doesn't seem big or physical enough to play end in a 3-4, but if the experiment works, you can call Ryan a genius. Ropati Pitoitua (3 tackles) and Mike DeVito (28 tackles) are other holdovers with experience along the three- man front. DeVito could actually see a lot of time at right end, ahead of Pouha and Gholston.
LB: In one of those "man bites dog" moments that seems to pop up every now and again in professional sports, the Jets raised eyebrows in April when they signed free agent pass rusher and old Dolphins nemesis Jason Taylor (42 tackles, 7 sacks with Miami). Taylor will be 36 when the season starts, but can still be effective coming off the edge and should make life easier for Calvin Pace (55 tackles, 8 sacks). Taylor's signing would seem to have negative consequences for Bryan Thomas (53 tackles), whose two sacks last year were his fewest since he moved from end to outside backer in 2007. On the inside, David Harris (127 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 2 INT) and Bart Scott (92 tackles, 1 sack) will continue to reign supreme. The duo ranked 1-2 on the Jets in tackles a season ago, though Scott failed to make a ton of big plays in his first year in a Gang Green uniform. Jamaal Westerman (10 tackles, 1 sack) and Lance Laury (6 tackles with the Seahawks) both have experience as special-teamers and backup LBs, and the team is also high on undrafted rookie free agent Brashton Satele (Hawaii).
DB: It's hard to know how much of the Revis situation is real, and how much is bluster (on both sides), but there's no doubt that neither party would be done a service by the league's best corner missing the entire season. Revis' absence would turn the Jets' secondary from top-tier to above average, but putting ex-Chargers Pro Bowler Antonio Cromartie (33 tackles, 3 INT with San Diego) and promising first-round pick Kyle Wilson (Boise State) out there would not be a total loss. Cromartie is looking to bounce back after struggling in San Diego over most of the past two seasons. Holdovers Dwight Lowery (24 tackles, 3 INT) and Drew Coleman (22 tackles) are other CB options. The safeties will likely be the same, with Jim Leonhard (76 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Eric Smith (48 tackles, 1 INT) making up a reliable tandem. Ex-Brown Brodney Pool (48 tackles, 4 INT with Cleveland) has experience but has not had a great training camp or preseason to date, and James Ihedigbo (19 tackles, 2 sacks) is best known for his special teams prowess.
SPECIAL TEAMS: The Jets will be undergoing a change at kicker, where the team allowed Jay Feely to escape to Arizona in free agency and signed ex-Cowboys Pro Bowler Nick Folk (18-28 FG with Dallas). Folk fell apart in Dallas last year and was released, but has done a nice job in the preseason and looks to have turned things around mentally. Punter Steve Weatherford (42.0 avg.) doesn't have the biggest leg in the league but is good enough. Cotchery (10.3 avg.) and Leonhard (8.2 avg.) both handled punt returns last season, and Brad Smith (31.0 avg., 1 TD) is capable of breaking a big kickoff return. The Jets have made a change at long-snapper, where James Dearth is gone after nine years of service and first-year pro Tanner Purdum is now in charge.
PROGNOSIS: The Jets are not a perfect team by any means, but are clearly on the rise after the way they finished 2009. Even if Sanchez has his struggles, Greene and Tomlinson fail to lift the running game as Thomas Jones did, or Holmes isn't quite the receiving presence he was in Pittsburgh last year, there is still that fine defense to help the Jets win games. The presence of Revis on the roster would definitely help, but if he does the unthinkable and stays away all year, Ryan and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine will be able to push enough of the right buttons to keep the unit playing at a high level. Look for double-digit wins, the team's first division title since 2002, and a legitimate chance at the organization's first Super Bowl appearance since Broadway Joe.
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Campbell threw for 170 yards on 10-of-20 passing and ran for a touchdown, as the Oakland Raiders took a 32-17 preseason victory over the Chicago Bears. Campbell, who also had one interception, played
<< Brewers edge Padres; Stairs sets HR mark
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Dickerson had two hits and two runs
batted in and Mike McClendon worked three scoreless innings to earn his first
major-league win as Milwaukee downed San Diego, 6-5, in the middle meeting of
a three
<< Rams edge Browns on late FG
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Brown kicked four field goals,
including the game-winning 28-yard boot late in the fourth quarter, as St.
Louis grabbed a 19-17 preseason win over Cleveland.
A.J. Feeley led the Rams on a
<< Folk, Jets edge Panthers
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Folk booted three field goals to lead
New York to a 9-3 win over Carolina at Bank of America Stadium.
Mark Sanchez completed 5-of-10 passes for 12 yards and Joe McKnight carried 11
times for 28 yards
<< Longtime Pistons PR director Dobek passes away
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Dobek, who served in the Detroit Pistons
organization for 29 years up until this past May, passed away at the age of
51.
The Detroit Free Press reported Dobek's death, but cited no reason for his
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sean Rodriguez hit a go-ahead, game-winning two-run homer with two outs in the eighth, and the Tampa Bay Rays slipped past the Oakland A's, 5-4, in the third of four games at Oakland Coliseum. Rodriguez's
Stanton leads Lions over Broncos >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Drew Stanton's 25-yard rushing touchdown with
just under two minutes remaining lifted the Detroit Lions over the Denver
Broncos, 25-20, in the second preseason game for each club at Invesco Field.
Stanto
Cowboys beat Chargers on late safety >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dallas' Tony Romo and San Diego's Philip
Rivers were each picked off during their first offensive series and the
Cowboys earned a sloppy 16-14 preseason win over the Chargers thanks to a late
safety.
Henne sharp as Dolphins hold off Jaguars >>
Jacksonville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chad Henne completed 11-of-14 passes for
151 yards and two touchdowns, as the Miami Dolphins held on for a 27-26
preseason win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Henne took snaps for the majority o
Rodgers, Jackson help Packers edge Seahawks >>
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aaron Rodgers threw for 116 yards and two
touchdowns, leading the Green Bay Packers to a 27-24 victory over the Seattle
Seahawks in preseason action.
Rodgers completed 8-of-11 passes before giving way to
Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
SPORTS BETTING: NFL Football Sportsbook Betting
NFL owners, already life's biggest winners, want to try their luck with the lottery.
That was the news out of their meetings last week, where team bosses voted unanimously to allow stamping state and local lottery tickets with franchise logos, if, ahem, any governments wanted to do a deal.
A shocker: Within days the Pats announced they'd be sponsoring the Massachusetts state lottery, the Skins said they'd slap their sticker on Virginia scratch-offs and the Ravens admitted they were talking to Maryland lottery bosses. In all likelihood, it won't be long before every team is a presenting sponsor of scratch-offs or just plain old pick fives. "The change in policy was approved 32-0," said NFL spokesman Greg Aiello. "So you can expect to see more deals soon."
It's a branding opportunity too big for the owners to ignore, and one a couple of dozen baseball franchises have enjoyed for years. The fact the NFL has been slower to act than those slack-brained Seligites is indicative of its complicated relationship with all forms of gambling. Consider this: Last Thursday, as the Pats and the Redskins finalized their new lottery deals, a lawyer representing the NFL argued before Delaware's Supreme Court that the state's newly signed sports betting law should be repealed.
The NFL betting is the face of opposition to sports gambling . And as much as it would like to share that responsibility with other leagues, that's not going to happen as long as more than 40% of all money legally wagered on games is bet on football. That's why the Brewers can do a multi-million dollar deal with a local casino, or the Celtics can make their own pact with the Mass lottery, and the response is, "Sweet, let's play." But when the NFL does it the stakes are higher, and everyone from NPR's Frank Deford to the Associated Press to the guys blogging at Deadspin will line up to play gotcha.
So I asked Aiello, who surely knew there'd be piling on, how the league can rail against being bait for sports bettors, then allow its franchises to be just that for lotteries, the most insidious and addictive form of gambling around. He emailed me this response: "We are not moral crusaders. NFL personnel are permitted to engage in legal forms of gambling, except for betting on NFL games. We are making a distinction here between the spread of gambling on the outcome of our games and supporting state lottery scratch-off games, that have nothing to do with the outcome of our games."
Here's where I should rip him. But, the thing is, he's right. Not to get Obama on you, but this is a complicated, nuanced issue. As much as lotteries are considered a tax on the poor, the NFL isn't a socially obligated government program -- it's just a business. Scratch-off's help the bottom line, sports betting doesn't. Now, it's okay to call the league hypocritical when it releases injury reports, which players have told me only helps bettors … But when it supports other forms of gaming? Big Deal.
Now, it's okay to call the league hypocritical when it releases injury reports, which players have told me only helps bettors. And it's okay to mutter something obscene when the league pretends gambling doesn't help drive TV ratings and fan interest and put money in owners' pockets. But when it supports other forms of gaming? Big Deal. The Bears should put an orange "C" on every deck of cards dealt at Harrah's in Joliet; the Eagles should slap their logo on roulette wheels at the Borgata in Atlantic City; the Dolphins should hold training camp at the El San Juan in Puerto Rico.
Seriously.
The NFL's problem, when it comes to the gambling world, isn't hypocrisy, it's worse: The bosses lack vision. That's why the league is picking unwinnable fights in Delaware and taking pot shots from critics after making smart sponsorship deals. Roger Goodell and his gang are acting and thinking locally rather than globally, which is rare for them, especially compared to their professional (and amateur) counterparts.
The NBA held its All Star game in Las Vegas and David Stern's kingdom didn't crumble (although the town did bring plenty of players to their knees.) I'd say it's 6 to 5 and pick 'em that Lebron will make a road swing through Sin City before his career is over.
Even the NCAA College Football Betting is more progressive on this issue than the NFL. Several years ago Rachel Newman Baker, college sports' gambling czar, opened a dialogue with Vegas bookmakers to learn about how they do business. She's visited Nevada sports books, studied their operations and listened to how they regulate action. Now she knows she can expect a call from bookmakers, who lose money when sports are fixed, if they think something sketchy is going on in NCAA games. She's not in favor of sports betting, but, as she once told me, "I know it's not going away, either."
The NFL can't seem to accept that. And until it can find peace with the idea, it'll get flack, even when it's right.
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