Royals looking to turn the page from losing streak
Baseball Betting Lines
06/02/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There aren't enough adjectives to describe the Kansas City Royals' recent 12-game skid.
Fortunately for the Royals, they can now take solace in the fact that it's over. And with back-to-back wins to close out their homestand, it looks like the healing has already begun. That process began on Saturday when closer Joakim Soria recorded the final out to put an end to the agony.
"I waited for maybe five seconds before I took a deep breath," Manager Trey Hillman said of his reaction. "It was a big relief."
Prior to the losing streak, Kansas City appeared to be on the right track, sitting just a game below .500 and right in the thick of the American League Central standings. Then, the bottom dropped out. Now, the Royals again find themselves in their customary position, with one of the worst records in the majors.
However, the team is already showing signs of fixing some of the things that plagued them over the last two weeks. One of those things: getting the job done with two outs and runners in scoring position.
During the fifth inning of Saturday's 4-2 win over Cleveland, David DeJesus and Mark Grudzielanek drove in back-to-back runs with two outs to open up a 4-1 lead.
"I was pleased with what we did," Hillman said. "We had some big two-out hits."
Grudzielanek was at it again Sunday, belting a two-run homer in Kansas City's 6-1 win over Cleveland, while starter Brian Bannister, who entered the game with only one win since April 13, held the Indians to one run in 7 1/3 innings.
After an off-day Monday, the Royals will kick off a seven-game road trip beginning Tuesday in Chicago. KC will get pretty used to hotel life over the next few weeks, as it plays 13 of its next 16 away from home. At the same time, the Royals will try to avoid a ninth consecutive road loss Tuesday night.
During the Royals' 12-game slide, they lost consecutive four-game sets in Boston and Toronto, falling to 11-18 on the road this season.
However, the Royals enter this next road set on the heels of their first series victory in quite a while. Still, there is plenty of work left to be done.
"It's huge for us to get these wins and get some positive feelings before heading out on the road again," Bannister said on the team's Web site. "We're going to face two tough teams. The White Sox are first in our division. Then we're going to Yankee Stadium. Even if the Yankees aren't playing that well, it's still an intimidating place to play.
AVILES READY FOR THE BIG SHOW
When a team spends the better part of a month losing game after game, changes are indeed imminent. Billy Butler, one of the franchise's promising young talents, has been an abomination at the plate, hitting .263 with just one home run and 18 RBI.
On Thursday, Butler was sent back down to the minors to iron out the kinks in his swing.
His departure cleared the way for Kansas City to promote utility infielder Mike Aviles from Triple-A Omaha. Aviles, 27, started at shortstop in his debut Saturday, going 0-for-3 and striking out in his first at-bat by watching three straight strikes.
"I guess I just froze. I don't know," he said.
At Omaha, Aviles was hitting .338 with 10 homers and 42 RBI. He hit .419 with the Royals in Spring Training. A seventh-round pick in 2003, Aviles has started at every infield position except first base. Last year, he hit .296 with 17 homers and 77 RBIs for Omaha.
TOMKO OUT OF CHANCES
Through 10 starts, Brett Tomko was just 2-6 with a 6.11 ERA. Those numbers were good enough to earn a demotion to the minors. In his place steps Kyle Davies, who was called up to fill out the rotation. At Omaha, Davies was 6-2 with a 2.06 ERA.
He got right down to business on Saturday, ending the losing skid in his first start of the season Saturday night. He earned the win after five innings and one earned run allowed.
Davies was a trade deadline acquisition from Atlanta last year, posting a 3-7 record and a 6.66 ERA in 11 starts with Kansas City.
WHO'S HOT
Soria (1.16 ERA, 12-for-12 in saves) continues to get it done in the closer's role, even though save opportunities come around less often than lunar eclipses these days in Kansas City.
WHO'S NOT
The door may have finally closed on shortstop Tony Pena, who is hitting just .155 on the season.
A LOOK AHEAD
Zack Greinke (5-2, 2.88) looks to make it three in a row tomorrow night when the Royals take on Gavin Floyd (5-3, 3.22) and the White Sox. On Wednesday it will be Luke Hochevar (3-5, 4.98) versus John Danks (4-4, 2.86). And on Thursday, Gil Meche (3-7, 5.35), who has rebounded from a rough start to post a 3.71 ERA over his last seven starts, will take on the resurgent Jose Contreras (5-3, 2.89). Davies (1-0, 1.80) will take the hill in Friday's opener at Yankee Stadium.
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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