Spurs resume road trip against Lakers
Basketball Betting Lines
02/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Antonio Spurs face the toughest test of their annual Rodeo Road Trip when they face the defending NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center tonight.
Each year around this time the Spurs hit the road while the annual San Antonio Livestock Show and Rodeo takes over the AT&T Center.
Gregg Popovich's team set up temporary residence in Hollywood on Saturday and improved to 2-1 on its season-long eight-game trek when George Hill scored 22 points on 8-of-11 shooting, and the Spurs notched their 15th straight win over the Clippers with a 98-81 blowout win.
Tony Parker added 14 points and 14 assists for the Spurs, who have not lost to the Clippers since March 7, 2006. Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner each contributed 11 points in the resounding victory.
"It was important to come out and play better, and we did that," said Spurs forward Manu Ginobili. "George (Hill) has been a huge key for us; it's hard to imagine us not in the playoffs, so every win is important."
Historically, the long trips have actually been very successful for San Antonio, which has compiled a 42-17 mark in the Rodeo Road Trips since the club moved into the AT&T Center.
The Lakers, meanwhile, keep chugging along and improved to a Western Conference-best 39-13 on Saturday by dispatching the Trail Blazers, 99-82, in Portland on Saturday.
Ron Artest poured in 21 points and Lamar Odom contributed 10 points and tied a career-best with 22 rebounds, as the Lakers overcame the absence of Kobe Bryant to win in the Rose City for the first time in nearly five years.
The Lakers came into the game having lost nine in a row at the Rose Garden, but used a 47-30 rebounding advantage to end that skid. It was their first win in Portland since Feb. 23, 2005.
Bryant, who is averaging 28 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists this season, sat due to a sprained left ankle, ending a string of 235 consecutive games played. The 12-time All-Star last missed a game on March 7, 2007, due to a suspension.
"Kobe followed me in the coaches room and said 'I'm thinking about not playing' and I said 'it's OK if you don't,'" Lakers coach Phil Jackson said. "I went back in and saw him 10 minutes later and he said 'yeah I think I should take it off' and so we did and went from there."
Shannon Brown tallied 19 points and Derek Fisher scored 14 for LA, which also received 13 points and eight boards from Pau Gasol. The Lakers won for the sixth time in eight games and did it after losing center Andrew Bynum due to a hip injury. He didn't play in the second half.
"It was a great effort, great teamwork and great outcome," Gasol said. "Obviously we don't like to see Kobe sitting out and he's been banged up, and then Andrew going down, we'll see what happens with them, but we reacted well, we just played hard and played together and the result was good, we won in a place that we haven't been able to play at all, or be successful at all."
Bryant, who hasn't missed consecutive contests since missing the first two games of the 2006-07 season with a knee injury, is listed as day-to-day while Bynum is doubtful for tonight's contest.
"I would say it (Kobe's injury status) is day-to-day," Jackson Said. "We have an opportunity here with two games before the All-Star break and there is some time there if he does need to take a longer time, we're trying to give him the liberty to do that."
The Lakers, who are a gaudy 24-4 at home, had an eight-game winning streak at Staples Center snapped in their last home encounter, a 126-113 setback to Denver on Friday. Meanwhile, San Antonio snapped a two-game skid to the Lakers with a 105-85 win in the Alamo City on Jan. 12.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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